Climate change effects Management with the approach of the uncertainty of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models in Hamadan Province, Iran

INTRODUCTION: Since Iran is located in the semi-arid belt, it has faced such issues as drought, dust crisis, and intensified migration. The assessment of effects climate change includes identifying some key aspects uncertainties used to estimate its impacts, context Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs): regional-scale climatology, statistical or dynamic downscaling methods, parametric structural different models. One most important sources uncertainty use AOGCMs that produce outputs for variables. METHODS: In this study, investigate AOGCM models, downscaled data NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections dataset obtained from 21 with medium Representative Concentration Pathway4.5 scenario were downloaded site 81 cells Hamadan Province, Iran. After validation they evaluated against criteria coefficient determination model efficiency comparison Hamedan synoptic station period 1976-2005. To reduce AOGCMs, ensemble performance (EP) models was Climate Data Operators software. FINDINGS: It revealed MRI-CGCM3, MPI-ESM-LR, BNU-ESM, ACCESS1-0, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-MR had better than similar also found IPSL-CM5A-LR, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, CESM1-BGC, GFDL-ESM2M lowest correlation between observational simulation mean monthly precipitation. CONCLUSION: According results, method could provide a good base (1976-2005), compared station, more accurate single implementation each model. results EP future (2020-2049) showed precipitation will not considerably increase by 0.23 mm. addition, average, maximum, minimum annual temperatures 1.54°C, 1.7°C, 1.40°C, respectively.